Jim Cramer says this earnings season might be ‘a rough one’

CNBC’s Jim Cramer on Thursday said he thinks the upcoming earnings season might be tough thanks to continued inflation, as well as new weight loss drugs seeding fear for investors in the food and beverage sector.

“This time, it already feels like it’s going to be a rough one, because the market seems to be nauseated by the companies that’ve already reported, with the sole exception of tech, which is once again getting a pass,” he said. “I think it’s because we’re rooting for lower inflation and less wage growth, but so far we just aren’t getting that scenario.”

Cramer said the market is facing an “unforgiving backdrop” that may cause many on Wall Street to interpret earnings negatively. He pointed to Thursday’s consumer price index report, which saw inflation rise more than expected, as well as weak demand for the government’s 30-year Treasury bond auction as factors.

He also highlighted PepsiCo, one of the first big companies to report earnings this season. The Frito-Lay parent’s Tuesday report beat Wall Street’s expectations and it raised its full-year outlook. However, its stock has dropped, finishing Thursday down 2.8%.

Cramer attributed the stock’s losses in part to fears about GLP-1 drugs. He said investors may be worried that food companies, especially ones that sell junk food, will see their business hurt if consumers on weight loss medication no longer crave their products. In addition, Cramer said many might see PepsiCo’s price-to-earnings multiple as too high, trading at more than 20 times earnings.

Price to earnings is a valuation metric that compares a company’s share price to its earnings per share.

Still, Cramer said investors should be wary and not be too negative.

“If the bond market behaves, like it had the last couple days, if there’s no new issuance of long-term paper by the Treasury, if we get some less hot economic numbers, then we will stabilize,” he said. “But, right now, the combination of higher rates and these drugs that impact diabetes, obesity, renal failure, heavy drinking, and strokes, and even high blood pressure — not to mention sleep apnea — have been anathema to the stock market, especially the overvalued packaged-food plays.”