Other
Cramer Q&A on everything from tech to health care to industrials
During the October Monthly Meeting , we took questions directly from Investing Club members. Here are Jim Cramer’s and portfolio director Jeff Marks’ responses. Their answers have been edited for clarity. 1. Why do rising interest rates have such a negative effect on technology stocks? (Rod) Jim Cramer: When the Federal Reserve started raising rates, we made sure to reiterate that we prefer companies that are profitable, generate cash flow, and return cash to shareholders because these characteristics help mitigate the risk of higher funding costs associated with higher rates. Mega-cap tech names have been holding up because they earn a lot of money. As an example, during the period when rates started to soar, Nvidia (NVDA) initially got hurt but the company proved resilient as it kept getting more orders from customers. Jeff Marks: It’s frequently viewed that the present value of a company is based on the sum of future cash flows discounted back at a certain rate – the rate often used to discount back is based on Treasury yields. The higher the interest rate, the lower the present value of each cash flow and thus, a low stock price. Funding costs also matter for growth companies, which are often in tech. If rates are higher, it becomes more expensive to borrow to fund growth and expansion plans if the company doesn’t have the cash. That’s why we made the change last year and said you have to own profitable companies that generate cash flow when the Fed starts hiking rates. 2. Why haven’t the stocks of oil companies risen at the same rate as the price of oil? Is this just a lag effect or are fears about a slowdown offsetting the higher oil prices? (Todd) Jim Cramer: I believe that the rally in oil was a short squeeze that is now over. I don’t think it deserved to be in the $90’s because it didn’t have the economic growth. President Joe Biden mistakenly did not refill the strategic petroleum reserve so he was not able to offload oil. I do think Russia ordered oil and sent it to China which kept it off the market. Our own producers surprisingly did not break ranks. What has happened is the artificial nature of the short squeeze engineered by traders and whole countries came apart when we realized that there were no bids and there was not enough oil in the market. We own Coterra (CTRA), our play on natural gas, which keeps edging higher. CEO Tom Jorden was right when he said that he was putting his bet on natural gas and he’s crushing it. If you don’t own Coterra, I think you’re making a mistake. Jeff Marks: I think the market sniffed out that oil was closer to making a near-term top and that’s why the stocks weren’t being priced like oil was making a run to $100. But if the price of oil stocks remains disconnected from the price of the commodity for long, then what tends to happen is you get some M & A chatter around one of the bigger fishes looking to acquire an independent. That’s exactly what played out last week when the story about Exxon’s interest in Pioneer (PXD) was renewed. And, that deal was announced Wednesday. We plan to sell our PXD stake as soon as our trading rules allow. 3. I am concerned with Apple’s decline. Is it time to begin trimming or still “own it, don’t trade it?” (Donald) Jim Cramer: Many years ago when Apple (AAPL) traded in the $20s and $30, Shark Tank investor Daymond John came on “Mad Money” and recommended the stock, saying “stick with it, it’s a winner.” John appeared on “Mad Money” on Tuesday and said he believes the upcoming Vision Pro from Apple is going to be a winner too. There’s an opportunity for Apple to create a partnership with ESPN and pull content onto the miraculous Vision Pro mixed reality headset. Jeff Marks: Still in the “own it, don’t trade it” camp. It’s served us well for many years – through rate hiking cycles, pandemics, and trade wars – and it’s been better to hold it through all those events instead of trying to time the sell-point but also the re-entry level. Our Club analyst Zev Fima recently showed us the math behind it . 4. I’ve had Salesforce for quite a while on your recommendation and have a solid gain. But It’s fallen roughly 10% in the past month – more or less in line with the Nasdaq. Do you still think this is a long-term hold? (Peter) Jim Cramer: Marc Benioff, co-founder and CEO of Salesforce (CRM), is determined that artificial intelligence is going to produce more profits for companies which will then produce more money to hire people. The stock jumped after it announced a better-than-expected quarter . There are people who say their business is weak but this business is on fire. Jeff Marks: Yes, I do, the company has made great strides expanding margins and increasing free cash flow, while keeping its steady cadence of around 10% revenue growth despite the uncertain macro. Salesforce has gotten better at managing dilution with its buybacks. The company is still the leader in customer relationship management and its generative AI tools could add a layer of incremental growth. 5. In light of the government’s anti-trust challenge, is Amazon “dead” money? (John) Jim Cramer: FTC chair Lina Khan does not have a strong antitrust case against Amazon (AMZN) – her arguments don’t make sense. Khan has had it out for Amazon since she was in law school and the case is garbage and it will be thrown out rather quickly. Jeff Marks: I don’t think so because I don’t think anything is going to come of it. And if anything, we’re in the camp that a breakup of Amazon into different parts could unlock value for shareholders. And by the way, I know Amazon recently has made great strides on the cost side and improving profitability, but if Amazon’s different businesses – the AWS cloud unit and retail – were independent, there would be increased scrutiny on each to expand margins and grow profits. 6. Over/Under in the next 12 months that Costco distributes a special cash dividend. (David) Jim Cramer: I spoke with Costco CFO Rich Galanti and he said it’s only a matter of “when, not if” the company distributes a special dividend. We love Costco (COST) because, unlike its retail peers, it doesn’t have theft problems. Costco is one of my absolute favorites in the portfolio. Costco is crushing it. Jeff Marks: I’m going to take “the over” on the special cash dividend because I think Costco likes collecting the 5% interest on its cash. But I’m going to “take the under” on a membership fee hike. 7. Can you review the concept of trading around a core position and give an example of how and when to do so? (Peter) Jeff Marks: What we did with Eli Lilly (LLY) recently is a great example. It’s been a core name since we bought it because we’ve been believers that Lilly had the best growth profile of any large-cap pharma name due to the value of its pipeline. But periodically, when everyone gets bulled up around one idea, the stock becomes a “crowded trade” and gets extended in the short term, which is why we recently trimmed some a few dollars below $600. Sure enough, the stock pulled back to the low $500s over the next few weeks. We didn’t pull the trigger and repurchase what we sold higher at those lower levels, but that cash became of good use when the whole market was getting clobbered last month. And, now with all the positive attention GLP-1s — those diabetes/weight loss drugs like Mounjaro — have gotten recently, the stock looks ready to break above that $600 price. Diabetes drug Mounjaro is expected to get approval to treat obesity soon. Jim Cramer: When you have a core position in a company where you have a long-term thesis, when the stock makes a huge move, you take a little bit of and redeploy it somewhere else in the portfolio. We did this in Humana (HUM) when we sold some HUM shares to secure a 12% gain. With the extra cash on hand, we felt that we had the case to buy, and traded around Procter & Gamble (PG). 8. Why do you like Stanley Black & Decker when you currently state invest in stocks that are making money and not losing money? (Norman) Jim Cramer: We like to have something related to the housing cycle that could make money. The decline in the stock is kind of ridiculous because this is the premier tool company in the world valued at $12 billion, has a strong 4% annual dividend yield, a management team that’s focused, and has gotten its costs down. Jeff Marks: Yes, Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) has had a few unprofitable quarters this year, but this is a special situation. Over the past year, the company was plagued by too much inventory, a bad cost structure, and a complex supply chain. But, the company is in the process of fixing all three. After losing money for three straight quarters, the company is expected to return to profitability in the upcoming reported quarter and the earnings recovery is expected to pick up into 2024 with expectations that it earns more that year than it did in 2022. 9. When you speak of buying on the way down and waiting for the next level, how do you determine what the next level down is? (James) Jim Cramer: This is more of an art, not a science. I learned a strategy from Michael Steinhardt, who is an unbelievable hedge fund manager, called a pyramid style of buying. It’s where you start small and build up, but only if it means it lowers your cost basis. Jeff Marks: You can do this a few ways. Sometimes we use a percentage basis – so on every 3% to 5% pullback. You could also use dividend yields – so if you bought a stock at a 3.75% yield, the next level could be at 4%. But conviction levels matter and what’s happening in the market is important as well. 10. I had a sizeable position in Honeywell for years and the stock is well off its 2021 highs. Should I continue to hold it? (Rhonda) Jim Cramer: We were expecting business changes at Honeywell (HON) and management followed through Tuesday when it announced a reorganization of the company. CEO Vimal Kapur, who replaced Darius Adamczyk earlier this year is reorganizing the business into different divisions starting in the first fiscal quarter next year. We want to see what he does with these changes but need to give the new leader some time to show us how he can bring out value for shareholders. Jeff Marks: I know CEO Vimal Kapur is early in his tenure, but I think the clock is ticking on Honeywell to bring out value and that’s worth owning it for. Yesterday (Tuesday) he announced the strategic reorganization of the company – that’s a positive first step. Next, I’d like to see acquisitions that accelerate growth and dispositions of non-core assets. Otherwise, I wouldn’t be surprised to see chatter around an activist wanting to break the company up, based on the success of the General Electric (GE) and Raytheon Technologies splits. (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NVDA, CTRA, AAPL, CRM, AMZN, COST, LLY, HUM, PG, SWK, HON. See here for a full list of the stocks.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. NO SPECIFIC OUTCOME OR PROFIT IS GUARANTEED.
During the October Monthly Meeting, we took questions directly from Investing Club members. Here are Jim Cramer’s and portfolio director Jeff Marks’ responses. Their answers have been edited for clarity.
Source link
Post Views: 72
