Here’s how I see the Fed’s rate-cut dilemma playing out
The following passage has been adapted from Jim Cramer’s opening monologue at Saturday’s annual meeting of the CNBC Investing Club. The single biggest issue we will be struggling with for the rest of the year is not how many Federal Reserve interest rate cuts we will have but whether the Fed can stand pat, or even if it may have to raise rates, because there simply isn’t any weakness that anyone can find in this economy. Nothing has come down in price — not in the supermarket, not on the highway, not on the car lot, not on the cruise ship, not at the restaurant, not in the workplace, not in the kitchen or the shopping mall or center, or the apartment or the home or the stadium. Nothing. And we’re supposed to have three to five rate cuts? I don’t see how it’s possible. Perhaps as important is not enough people are changing their habits yet in reaction to these increases to even merit a rate cut. The consumer is grousing about prices but paying them. As long as that is the case, the Fed has no choice but to keep rates steady or raise them if necessary. That leads to the big question: Will the stock bull market we have enjoyed so much since the end of when the Federal Reserve raised interest rates be broken? I don’t think so. Here’s why: The conversion from three or four cuts to two to one to no cuts won’t happen overnight. It won’t be a headlong rush out of the stock market. As long as enough people think rate cuts are going to occur, there won’t be torrent of money going to the sidelines. We will not have what we saw in September and October last year; a mini bear market when we thought rate hikes would never stop. What else could influence our thinking for 2024 besides this rate-cut dilemma? I see five minor chords that I think will play out over the course of the year. 1. The election overhang I am not a political person and I don’t talk politics. I’ll tell you why: That’s a relic of a house where I grew up, and I had a bleeding heart, anti-Vietnam War mom and an avowed Nixon-Goldwater, pro-U.S. Army dad. When your dad was a sergeant in the U.S. Army, he doesn’t forget how great the Army is, which is terrific. Now thanks to my great friend John Ellis, who has a terrific newsletter, I see seven battleground states: Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada — 400,000 votes will determine who is most likely going to be president. There is $10 to $15 billion being spent to win over those 400,000 votes, and I believe possible foreign cyber threats lurking that will determine the presidential election. But I think that we have all learned something in the last few years that, as long as we have a split government, that it just doesn’t really matter that much for the stock market. And we will have a split government. Think about it: A Republican sweep used to be so good for oil and gas. Not anymore; we’ll have too much oil and gas because we’d produce too much. Oil goes down when there’s too much production. That’s why we only have Coterra Energy . It was a good quarter for Cottera, but we can’t have more than that. A Republican sweep used to mean buy defense stocks. Now it means sell the defensive stocks. Could we have more mergers? Yes, I think that’ll happen but that’s been happening ever since the Federal Trade Commission shot itself in the foot when it tried to block the Microsoft -Activision Blizzard deal. I think there will be more M & A, and that is very bullish. 2. Private equity firepower I think we’ll see a much greater play of private equity money. When I read that Steve Schwarzman from Blackstone made $896 million last year without them really doing any deals, I think there will be a percent of people invested in private equity who will say, “Give me my money back unless you start doing deals.” That will help us. That will help us tremendously. There’s just too much money sloshing around — making gigantic fees, by the way — for nothing to happen with the money. 3. Recovery in China I think the Chinese are going to be incredibly desperate in 2024. Now we’re already beginning to see investigations of those who sell short. I believe the Chinese will finally adopt Keynesian economics. If we get Keynesian economics, you want more exposure to the Chinese market. It’s been a bear to do that. It’s been a bear to own Starbucks . It’s been a bear to own Estee Lauder , for heaven’s sake. But it could be a bull to own Wynn Resorts, which we just added to, and Apple is a creature of Chinese demand. I don’t think things will get better between our countries — hence why we are sticking with Palo Alto Networks . They do want the H200 there; they want to weaponize Nvidia . But the Democrats and the GOP won’t let that happen. 4. Infrastructure boom I think the infrastructure money will continue. It’s all been earmarked. That’s Club name Eaton , but it’s also Quanta Services , which I’m looking at. It’s also Ingersoll Rand . And it’s two that I let get away. I let Caterpillar get away — a really big gain. And I let Nucor get away after a really big gain, but not big enough. We’d probably have to pay up to get them back in the portfolio. 5. GLP-1 drug revolution I think Eli Lilly will be the next company to cross the $1 trillion valuation mark because I believe that the GLP-1 drugs will become widely accepted by the insurance companies, which are the gating factor. Not the doctors, but the insurance companies. The food companies and the grocery stores are hoping that nothing really changes. But they are not counting on what these drugs really do, which Wall Street doesn’t talk about. It’s about willpower. You go by aisles that you used to want to go into, but you don’t care about anymore. And that’s where the weakness is going to come from. I do believe what will happen is those drugs —and it’s Novo Nordisk ‘s Wegovy and Lilly’s Zepbound — will come down in price, and they’ll have pill form later on. And that will make it more than obvious to everyone that these drugs aren’t going away. (See here for a full list of the stocks in Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust.) As a subscriber to the CNBC Investing Club with Jim Cramer, you will receive a trade alert before Jim makes a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling a stock in his charitable trust’s portfolio. If Jim has talked about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing the trade alert before executing the trade. THE ABOVE INVESTING CLUB INFORMATION IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY , TOGETHER WITH OUR DISCLAIMER . NO FIDUCIARY OBLIGATION OR DUTY EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY VIRTUE OF YOUR RECEIPT OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED IN CONNECTION WITH THE INVESTING CLUB. 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