“The negative news is about to turn around” — EnergyWatch

Less disappointing news than feared on Tuesday from the wind divisions of GE and Siemens Energy helped send Vestas shares to the top of the Danish stock market on Wednesday with a plus of 2.7% to 198.66.

However, the increase should also be seen in the light of the fact that the Vestas share, which peaked at DKK 219.15 on the first trading day of the year, has been sent backwards before recovering this week, Jacob Pedersen, Head of Equity Research at Sydbank, tells Marketwire.

”We have just received reports from two of Vestas’ competitors, and none of them have disappointed as such. That’s new in this industry. The negative news is about to turn around now,” says Jacob Pedersen, referring to the challenges that have characterized the entire industry in recent years – and affected not least GE and Siemens Energy’s wind turbine company, Siemens Gamesa, but also Vestas.

”This mini-comeback also comes after Vestas fell back somewhat at the beginning of the year. The rapid fall in a short time is of course also part of the reason why the share price rises when there is good news,” adds Jacob Pedersen.

Vestas’ share price rose sharply towards the turn of the year on the back of a strong order intake, but as investors could subsequently also see that many of the orders are only for installation after 2024, this ”took the air out of the share price” at the beginning of the year, the analyst believes.

Tuesday’s report from GE again showed a large loss in the division that includes the wind turbine activities, but perhaps the most conspicuous fallout from the report compared to Vestas was that the company expects high single-digit margins in 2024 in its onshore wind turbine business.

Later on Tuesday, Siemens Energy released preliminary figures for the first quarter of its odd fiscal year, reporting a loss before special items in the troubled wind turbine company Siemens Gamesa of 426 million euros, which was better than the minus of 759 million euros in the same quarter last year – and better than analyst expectations of minus 576 million euros.

”In recent years, we have become accustomed to negative surprises from Vestas’ competitors. Vestas hasn’t done very well during that period, but the competitors’ woes have also affected the Vestas share and the sentiment in the wind industry in general.”

”Now we suddenly have a quarter where – even though the financial figures do not look good – there is a positive tone, especially with GE’s expectations of positive earnings in the onshore wind business in 2024. This tells us a little about how far they have come in terms of pushing prices up to a level where they can make money,” says Jacob Pedersen.

However, he attributes Siemens Gamesa’s better-than-expected earnings in the quarter to more accruals, and he notes that the company maintains its expectations for the loss for the full financial year.